Getting back to Kenny

Keno’s work in the comment section is 1996 Shawn Kemp. His bedroom antics? Similarly dominant, say the ladies.

Durant is good. It will be interesting to see how he holds up as seattle struggles this season. In that stones game Sunday night blaha mentioned that prior to this current streak he had never lost consecutive games, let alone 7 straight. He seems to be playing well, although he definitely needs to hit the weight room. Looking at him makes you appreciate Lebron even more, who came into the league a year younger looking about 5 years older. Seriously it’s crazy how built he was for an 18 year old. I know I’m probably pissing zach off by talking up Lebron again, but really, the guy is ridiculous.

Agreed, agreed.

It’s definitely not fair or accurate to start making historical comparisons about Bron (mostly because he hasn’t won anything), but I can’t imagine ever seeing another player like him. So big, so strong, so fast, so many skills, such vision. It’s too bad he’s trapped on Cleveland with that roster for the next couple of years.

Regarding Durant, I want to bring up again something Barkley said during Simmons’ podcast: that he had to work so hard carrying really bad Philly teams in the beginning of his career that later—when he actually had the personnel around him to contend—he just wasn’t the same physical player that he was. I really hope that doesn’t happen to KD—especially considering how scrawny his upper body is. I’m not sure he could carry his mom’s groceries into the house.

Also, I wanted to touch on something you mentioned in an earlier reply, that chauncey has seemingly regressed. I have been thinking about it and I agree he seems to be having less of an impact on games than he used to. Last year he was downright bad for stretches of the playoffs. But his regular season numbers don’t seem to bear out the theory that he has declined significantly, at least not from last year. Two years ago (when he finished fifth i believe in the MVP voting) was unquestionably his best season. He averaged 18+ per and 8.6 dimes, and shot a ridiculous percentage from behind the arc. Last year his numbers dipped to around 17 and 7. But the pistons as a whole were less effective than they were two years ago, not just chauncey. It’s early this season but his numbers are pretty similar 17.5 pts 6.7 asst, in a few less minutes per night. He’s averaged pretty much 2 TO’s in each of the last three seasons. Now I’ll be the first to admit that statistics don’t necessarily accurately measure a player’s impact on a game, but they do provide a factual basis for trying to compare differing time periods. As opposed to trying to rely on our memories which are going to sometimes be flawed. I think in this case Chauncey is a bit of a victim of his own success he played so well two years ago (probably a bit above his own head) that we got spoiled. I mean looking back it seems like he basically hit every big shot and never made a mistake in crunch time. But like i said, the entire team was clicking on all cylinders that regular season. They won 64 games that year. I try to think back about how Chauncey’s game is different from then, and I just don’t see it. Maybe some of the big shots he was hitting aren’t going down, he hit a couple in fourth quarter of that chicago game, but also failed to convert down the stretch. But so did sheed and rip.

His strength has never been as a creator. He doesn’t get that much penetration. His main assets are size, which he uses fairly effectively to post up smaller guys, a damn good three point shot, and the ability to protect the ball. His main function is as a distributor to RIP coming off screens or to one of the other guys in the post. Maybe he has lost half a step, and is even less effective than he once was at getting in the paint (that would account for a loss of about 2 assists per from his peak two seasons ago if his current numbers hold out), but I don’t ever really recall a time when chauncey was blowing by people and getting in the paint and either getting to the rim or dishing it off.

I guess I’m not exactly disagreeing with you. When I watch the Pistons I don’t feel like he’s as effective as he once was (at least in my memories) but at the same time I can’t really pinpoint any way that his game has changed. It will be interesting to see what happens in the playoffs because that is where his reputation grew, and he was definitely not good last year. But good players sometimes play bad, even in big spots, it doesn’t always signal the beginning of the end. Let’s hope that’s the case with chauncey, seeing as how we just signed him to that fat extension.

I did talk to Pat a little about this yesterday, and he seemed to agree with you that Chauncey’s game hasn’t changed all that much, but that been able to take over big games recently. I feel like in the NBA you have to have one guy that you always want taking the big shot. Maybe he doesn’t always get it—depending on what the defense does (even Jordan passed to Paxson/ Kerr)—but at least you have some clear lines of demarcation, clearly established roles. Do you think the Chauncey of two years ago would have let Sheed miss twice (though he had a good matchup and was money all game) and let Rip take the last shot? I think he’s lacking confidence (understandable) and I think it’s hurting us in the last minutes of games.

Maybe having help from the bench will let him stay fresher, and bring more to the table in the fourth quarter, and in the second season. Maybe it’d help with his motivation too.

…in the absence of my own commentary I’ll just copy and paste Simmons on here. Lately I haven’t been that blown away by his work (we get it Bill, you think the Patriots are the best team ever) but this excerpt made me laugh.

“Reason No. 12,743 why I love the NBA: Okafor turning down Charlotte’s $55 million extension when he has played in 166 of a possible 266 games over the past three seasons. I’m not one of the best 10 power forwards in the league. I can’t stay on the court, and I don’t have any low-post moves. Guys, the bidding starts at $70 million! The NBA needs to work this saga into its “Where Amazing Happens” campaign: “Where Emeka Okafor Does Nothing For Three Years And Turns Down $55 Million Happens.””

As you mentioned, the NBA is putting together a pretty solid ad campaign and I like the “amazing” ads, but that is so true. The sad thing is they could replace okafor with countless other names. “Where Chris Webber getting paid 15 mil by philly to go play for Detroit happens.” , “Where Anderson Varejao’s agent can convince him he’s the key to Cleveland’s title hopes and holding out is a good idea happens”, “Where two words ‘Theo Ratliff” happens.”

I had already posted a similar thing (see below) from Simmons about Charlie Bell before I saw you had written this.

It’s a little bit insane how much the NBA is dominated by contract talk and contract maneuvering. Regarding the Marbury mess (how quickly that unraveled!—although he did have a pretty wild summer), ESPN Insider’s Chris Sheridan wrote the following:

The common belief is that Marbury’s contract, which pays him $19.2 million this season and a guaranteed $21.1 million next season, makes him untradeable. But there is another way to look at it, and from a certain perspective the thing that makes Marbury so unattractive is the very same factor that makes him attractive — his contract.

Here’s why: If you are the owner or the general manager of a team looking to rebuild, one of the best assets you can have is a contract worth $21.1 million coming off your salary cap in the summer of 2009 when there will be a bumper crop of free agents that could include many of the players from the 2004 draft class who did not agree to contract extensions prior to the Oct. 31 deadline, including Andre Iguodala, Emeka Okafor, Luol Deng and Ben Gordon.

No one has to be told that American professional sports (or any level of American sports really) is a carefree wonderland where it’s all about the game. But the NBA is particularly tied to this kind of economic gymnastics. I wouldn’t trade it for the horrors of Major League Baseball, where there’s basically three tiers of existence: coastal major markets (LA, NYC, Boston), a few moderate contenders (Tigers, Chicago, St. Louis), and a lot of teams that have no chance.

Where’s the balance between total parity and being able to resign your talent? A team like Phoenix (which made a lot of really good deals, and a couple of bad ones) is a victim of its own success, and fighting itself (and mortgaging its future) to stay under the cap. I don’t know what the answer to that is.

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5 Responses to “Getting back to Kenny”

  1. sloan Says:

    my apologies if anyone saw this entry right after i posted it. it was a total mess. it’s a little better now.

  2. zachary Says:

    wow way tooooo much to read

  3. zachary Says:

    lebron does not impress me.

  4. Pat Says:

    Haha that is why i love zach. Unimpressed with the most impressive (to most other people) player in the league.

    All good thoughts from both kenny and Jerry. After I talked to Jerry about Chauncey and had read Kenny’s post i tried to pinpoint what the difference is and i think i came to a conclusion. Chauncey’s overall numbers remain about the same but his production is not the same in the big games. In previous seasons Chauncey would step up HUGE in big games and seemed like a player who thrived on those sitautions. Now he seems to play his best in more meaningless regular season games during which there is less pressure to perform.

    So since kenny did a statistic analysis i will as well.

    I’ll take each regular season and compare it with each playoff and you will be able to see how he once stepped up his game in the playoffs whereas now it falls off. I think this results in our feelings that chauncey has regressed as player.

    2002-2003

    Regular Season = 16.2 pts 3.9 assists 1.8 turnovers
    Playoffs = 18 pts 4.7 assists 2.4 turnovers

    2003-2004

    Regular Season = 16.9 pts 5.7 assists 2.4 turnovers
    Playoffs = 16.4 pts 5.9 assists 2.7 turnovers

    2004-2005

    Regular Season = 16.5 pts 5.8 assists 2.25 turnovers
    Playoffs = 18.7 pts 6.5 assists 1.9 turnovers

    2005-2006

    Regular Season = 18.5 pts 8.6 assists 2.1 turnovers
    Playoffs = 17.9 pts 6.5 assists 2.4 turnovers

    2006-2007

    Regular Season = 17pts 7.2 assists 2 turnovers
    Playoffs = 18.6 pts 5.7 assists 3 turnovers

    So after looking at these i guess i don’t see quit the dropoff i was expecting. But there is a slight difference in that before, his playoff series outperformed his regular season stats and now it seems to work in the opposite direciton. There could be many reasons for this but this also could simply be a result of chauncey losing that big play clutch player mentality. Remember when he sent the New Jersey game to OT with the halfcourt shot in ’04? I remember almost thinking that i expected it. Now i wouldn’t hold my breath for a shot like that to fall.

  5. Kenny Says:

    I’ve continued mulling this over and come up with a few thoughts that I think could account for our collective perception.

    I think when Chauncey started coming into his own on the pistons people around the league were surprised. So when the Pistons got into crunch time their opponents didn’t gear up to stop chauncey. They were trying to stop RIP on curls or doubling sheed in the post. This gave Chauncey open looks, which he began to knock down at seemingly every opportunity.

    I think eventually the league took notice (since the NBA is collectively sorta dumb, this took a while) and they started to realize Chauncey was the guy they had to worry about. So when they double sheed or any other player, they don’t do it from chauncey, and opposing pg’s know to find him in transition and stay up on him because he will look to shoot the 3.

    As I mentioned, I’ve never really thought of chauncey as a guy who would create his own shot with the ball in his hand (other than in the post from time to time). So now that teams are gearing up to stop him late in games he’s not “mr. bigshot” like he once was.

    I don’t know if this explains all of it, but it makes sense when you look at his overall numbers, which have been pretty consistent, and don’t indicate that he’s lost anything.

    I just started thinking about the whole “clutch” idea and specifically Billy Beane’s assertion that basically there is no such thing, but I don’t have time to get into it right now. And i’m not sure where I stand on it, maybe later i’ll give it a shot.

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